Closing the Cost Gap for Clean Hydrogen Demand by 2030 – New Report Outlines Solutions to Unlock Business Cases

HOUSTON (Texas) and BRUSSELS (Belgium), March 11, 2025 – A new report by the Hydrogen Council, finds that, despite a challenging environment for clean hydrogen, the effective implementation of existing policies could support the business case for the uptake of ~8 Mt p.a. of clean hydrogen across the European Union, the United States and East Asia by 2030.  

The Hydrogen: Closing the Cost Gap report, developed with the analytical support of McKinsey & Co, highlights that this can be achieved by the transposition of the EU Renewable Energy Directive (REDIII) at EU country level, rollout of Japan’s Contracts for Difference mechanism (CfD) and South Korea’s Clean Hydrogen Portfolio Standard (CHPS), and implementation of hydrogen-related sections of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), resulting in either reducing the production cost of clean hydrogen and its derivatives or mandating or otherwise incentivizing their use. 

To further advance decarbonization targets, another ~13 Mt p.a., largely in established use cases, could be unlocked with incremental infrastructure enhancements and cost decline. For instance, serving low-carbon refining and ammonia demand across the EU and US would require the expansion of CCS networks in the US. Uptake in emerging sectors like trucking hinges on a combination of factors including expansion of hydrogen refueling infrastructure and lower clean hydrogen production costs.  

An additional ~13 Mt p.a., primarily in new end uses with limited decarbonization alternatives, faces more significant cost and infrastructure hurdles. Near-term advancements could lay the necessary foundation for future industry growth – particularly in sectors that could become major clean hydrogen and derivative demand segments in the long-term like maritime and aviation.

Of the total 34 Mt p.a. prospective hydrogen demand considered in this report, around 75% could come from established use cases (e.g., refining, ammonia), while initial adoption in new sectors (e.g. maritime and aviation) makes up the remaining 25%.

Sanjiv Lamba, CEO of Linde and Co-chair of the Hydrogen Council, commented: “A successful energy transition will be achieved through multiple solutions, including hydrogen. As we see compelling business cases emerge, the successful implementation of existing policies in key markets will be essential for advancing a substantial volume of clean hydrogen and its derivatives within this decade.”

Jaehoon Chang, Vice Chair  of Hyundai Motor Group and Co-chair of the Hydrogen Council, stated: “In addition to advancing decarbonization, establishing hydrogen as an ‘everyday energy’ is unlocking tangible business opportunities. It’s encouraging to see the report highlight the potential uptake of hydrogen in transport, which is consistent with our experience pioneering sustainable port-decarbonizing fleets and clean logistics businesses using our hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks in real world applications. To further boost demand and lower cost, we need supportive frameworks that will further foster a virtuous cycle within the hydrogen ecosystem.”

Ivana Jemelkova, CEO of the Hydrogen Council, concluded: “Continued scale-up of hydrogen and its derivatives requires policy certainty and simplicity as well as cross-sector collaboration on critical business-enabling measures, such as infrastructure. This report outlines concrete solutions to unlock business cases and advance energy security, competitiveness and sustainability priorities.”