Hydrogen changing tack: from announcements to hard commitments

This article was first published in H2 View

By Peter Mackey, Vice-President Strategy & Business Management, Hydrogen Energy business line, Air Liquide.

Twain’s (mis)quote – “reports of my death are greatly exaggerated” – may be a well-worn cliche for new markets and industries, but in the case of hydrogen, the point still holds. Commentators have been quick to focus on postponed or abandoned projects, bankruptcies, and cost challenges. 

These are undeniable, especially after the optimism of the 2021-2023 peak that drove the first wave of announcements. But they do not tell the full story. The reality is more nuanced and much more encouraging.

From choppy seas to steady waters

The standout takeaway from the Hydrogen Council’s flagship Global Hydrogen Compass 2025 report is the acceleration in hydrogen projects that are post-FID and moving into operation. In the past twelve months, the industry has seen more clean hydrogen projects take final investment decisions (FID) than ever before.

Committed investments in clean hydrogen have now passed $110bn across more than 500 projects, an increase of $35bn in the last year alone and maintaining the 50% annual growth rate since 2020. In total, this will bring more than 6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of low-carbon and renewable hydrogen capacity onstream by 2030, backed by 3.6 mtpa of committed offtake.

The first wave of mature projects is coming online, with around 1 mtpa of capacity already operational. Projects with strong business cases are advancing and crossing the FID line. So yes, storms have thinned the fleet, and over 50 projects have been cancelled. But these headwinds primarily affected projects that likely lacked the strongest business cases to begin with, while continued policy uncertainty made navigating the choppy waters even harder.

This turbulent passage is not unprecedented; it mirrors the consolidation seen during the solar panel oversupply crisis of the early 2010s. That market correction, while challenging, was a necessary shakeout that ultimately forged a more resilient industry. In the same way, the remaining fleet of hydrogen projects is now stronger, having weathered the initial squalls, and is nearing safe harbour.

The sector is entering a more mature and pragmatic phase, with a sharpening focus on sectors with the clearest business case and policy focus. Key markets are emerging based on this new pragmatic reality, led by momentum in China and, perhaps contrary to perceptions, North America.

Lessons from global front-runners

Looking at the global map, China – already emerging as the big force in renewables – features very strongly in renewable hydrogen production as well. It leads the world in total committed investments ($33bn), boasts 50% of global renewable hydrogen capacity, and is leading in hydrogen vehicle deployment, with thousands of heavy-duty trucks and buses already on the road. This is the best demonstration today of the complementarity of battery and hydrogen mobility.

North America also remains a major centre of new investment despite geopolitical and market pressures. It hosts the second biggest committed investment ($23bn) and is home to 85% of planned global low-carbon hydrogen production.

Meanwhile, Europe continues to set important precedents in regulation and infrastructure planning. However, it must ensure that this ambition translates into projects on the ground. Although the region accounts for nearly two-thirds of expected 2030 global demand, it accounts for less than 20% of total committed investment today.

Unlocking demand: charting the next leg of the voyage

So, contrary to much of the sentiment in the public debate, it appears that the industry remains on course – more pragmatic, business-oriented and focused.

However, without policy support to steady the course, progress risks stalling. Offtake security is the linchpin to all low-carbon and renewable hydrogen projects. An additional 3–8 mtpa of capacity on the supply side could be unlocked by 2030 if policy uncertainties were resolved in the months ahead. The policy contours have been set, but, in Europe, transposition into national regulation so far remains very limited, and the window to unlock more investment is narrow. Only consistent and credible policy will bring the next wave of projects to life. Clear definitions, robust certification, and predictable demand-side measures are essential if we are to reduce risk and enable the hydrogen industry to scale.

If successful, around 8 mtpa of additional clean hydrogen demand could materialise in the EU, US, Japan, and Korea by 2030, but it hinges on full enforcement of existing policies. Emerging clarity for policies such as the Renewable Energy Directive III in Europe, Japan’s contracts-for-difference, and Korea’s Clean Hydrogen Production Standard will help create early demand signals, but the overall business case still relies on steady waters and clear navigation from policymakers.

Hydrogen is emerging as the keystone to a diversified energy system

Despite the obvious challenges, hydrogen’s crucial role in a more resilient energy system is emerging.  Apart from its obvious role in decarbonization, hydrogen also addresses energy security concerns and helps manage rising demand for renewables. By allowing renewable energy to be stored and transported across distances and over time, hydrogen reinforces the resilience of the entire energy system.

Hydrogen is here to last. The industry is maturing, and the focus has shifted from announcement to delivery. There is tangible progress to celebrate as the first wave of projects come online. At the same time, there is much more to be done, and the trajectory over the next 12–18 months will determine whether we stay on course.

The choice is clear: with the right frameworks, the world could see an additional 3–8 mtpa of hydrogen, on top of current plans, come online by 2030, for a total 9–14 mtpa of clean hydrogen capacity (even accounting for potential project delays). Hesitation, however, risks leaving the fleet becalmed, slowing growth and undermining competitiveness in key sectors.

For policymakers, industry, and investors, the message is clear. Hulls are built and sails are ready. The task now is to weigh anchor and move. The final question is not one of technology, but of will: do we have the courage to set sail, or will inaction leave this vital industry stranded in port?