{"id":13921,"date":"2024-09-17T12:53:00","date_gmt":"2024-09-17T10:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hydrogencouncil.com\/?p=13921"},"modified":"2024-09-17T12:53:24","modified_gmt":"2024-09-17T10:53:24","slug":"hydrogen-insights-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hydrogencouncil.com\/es\/hydrogen-insights-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectivas sobre el hidr\u00f3geno 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"
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<\/p>\n

Elaborado por el Consejo del Hidr\u00f3geno en colaboraci\u00f3n con McKinsey & Company, el informe se basa en una combinaci\u00f3n de informaci\u00f3n p\u00fablica y datos exclusivos de los miembros del Consejo del Hidr\u00f3geno y representa un esfuerzo colaborativo para compartir una perspectiva objetiva, hol\u00edstica y cuantitativa sobre el estado del ecosistema global del hidr\u00f3geno.<\/p>\n

En esta \u00faltima edici\u00f3n, hacemos un balance del progreso de la industria durante los \u00faltimos cuatro a\u00f1os (2020-2024) y consideramos las tendencias m\u00e1s recientes en el sector y los principales desarrollos que han ocurrido desde nuestra publicaci\u00f3n anterior en diciembre de 2023.<\/p>\n

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Ver y descargar el informe completo<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Lea el comunicado de prensa<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Resumen ejecutivo<\/h3>\n

Predicando con el ejemplo: la inversi\u00f3n en proyectos de hidr\u00f3geno que alcanzan el FID a nivel mundial se multiplic\u00f3 por siete en los \u00faltimos cuatro a\u00f1os <\/strong><\/p>\n

La industria mundial del hidr\u00f3geno es incipiente y enfrenta desaf\u00edos a medida que crece; sin embargo, al observar el desarrollo de la industria mundial del hidr\u00f3geno desde la primera publicaci\u00f3n de Perspectivas de hidr\u00f3geno <\/em>En 2021, el progreso logrado gracias al esfuerzo de los tomadores de decisiones de la industria y los gobiernos es innegable.<\/p>\n

Los proyectos de hidr\u00f3geno limpio que alcanzaron la decisi\u00f3n final de inversi\u00f3n (FID) han experimentado un aumento espectacular, pasando de 102 proyectos comprometidos en 2020, que representan unos 10 000 millones de d\u00f3lares en inversi\u00f3n comprometida, a 434 en 2024, que representan unos 75 000 millones de d\u00f3lares.<\/p>\n

Los factores clave que impulsan el \u00e9xito de los proyectos hacia la FID incluyen incentivos claros y efectivos (por ejemplo, el cr\u00e9dito fiscal 45Q en los Estados Unidos), visibilidad del lado de la demanda que impulsa la aceptaci\u00f3n (por ejemplo, instrumentos de contrato por diferencia que impulsan la demanda de hidr\u00f3geno para la producci\u00f3n de energ\u00eda en Jap\u00f3n) y una pol\u00edtica industrial s\u00f3lida que reduce los costos gracias a la implementaci\u00f3n a escala (por ejemplo, en China).<\/p>\n

Creciente madurez del proyecto: avance hacia el FEED junto con el desgaste natural <\/strong><\/p>\n

Si bien la cartera de proyectos global se ha multiplicado por siete desde 2020, de 228 proyectos en 2021 a 1572 proyectos en 2024 en toda la cadena de valor, tambi\u00e9n ha madurado. Con el paso de los a\u00f1os, una mayor proporci\u00f3n de proyectos han pasado de la etapa de anuncios a etapas m\u00e1s avanzadas. Entre 2020 y 2024, las inversiones realizadas en proyectos de la etapa de dise\u00f1o de ingenier\u00eda inicial (FEED) se multiplicaron por 20.<\/p>\n

El desgaste natural impulsa la maduraci\u00f3n de la industria al eliminar gradualmente los proyectos menos viables y priorizar aquellos con mayor potencial. Se han observado tendencias similares en los primeros a\u00f1os de las industrias e\u00f3lica y solar antes de alcanzar la madurez, con tasas de \u00e9xito t\u00edpicas de embudos de proyectos de aproximadamente 10% a 20% desde el desarrollo inicial hasta la puesta en servicio, y siguen siendo comunes en otras tecnolog\u00edas clim\u00e1ticas de r\u00e1pido crecimiento, como la industria de las bater\u00edas.<\/p>\n

Navegando en la turbulencia: la incertidumbre regulatoria y los obst\u00e1culos macroecon\u00f3micos provocan retrasos <\/strong><\/p>\n

Junto con otras industrias de energ\u00eda limpia, el hidr\u00f3geno se ha enfrentado a una serie de vientos macroecon\u00f3micos en contra, que van desde el aumento de la inflaci\u00f3n y las tasas de inter\u00e9s hasta la turbulencia en los mercados energ\u00e9ticos mundiales tras las crisis geopol\u00edticas, las limitaciones de la cadena de suministro y precios de la electricidad renovable m\u00e1s altos de lo previsto.<\/p>\n

Un desaf\u00edo clave espec\u00edfico del sector para la industria del hidr\u00f3geno es la incertidumbre asociada a una serie de marcos regulatorios (por ejemplo, la implementaci\u00f3n pendiente de RED III a nivel de los Estados miembros, el reglamento para IRA 45V) que impide la financiabilidad de los proyectos. Junto con los aumentos de costos de la energ\u00eda renovable y los electrolizadores, esto ha llevado a retrasos y cancelaciones de proyectos, en particular, proyectos de hidr\u00f3geno renovable. Considerando estos retrasos y el desgaste esperado de proyectos, entre 12 y 18 Mt anuales de los 48 Mt anuales anunciados de suministro de hidr\u00f3geno podr\u00edan implementarse para 2030. Al mismo tiempo, durante el a\u00f1o pasado, regiones como Am\u00e9rica del Norte se convirtieron en el hogar de m\u00e1s de 90% de capacidad global de hidr\u00f3geno bajo en carbono que ha superado la FID en gran parte gracias a s\u00f3lidos incentivos de pol\u00edticas (por ejemplo, el cr\u00e9dito fiscal 45Q para proyectos de CCS en el marco de la IRA).<\/p>\n

M\u00e1s all\u00e1 del gran avance: alcanzar los objetivos clim\u00e1ticos requiere un importante salto de inversi\u00f3n <\/strong><\/p>\n

Si bien la industria ha visto un extraordinario aumento de siete veces en la capacidad de hidr\u00f3geno que llega a la FID a nivel mundial durante los \u00faltimos cuatro a\u00f1os, el ritmo y la escala de implementaci\u00f3n no han sido suficientes para seguir en el camino correcto con los compromisos clim\u00e1ticos. Para acelerar la descarbonizaci\u00f3n del sistema energ\u00e9tico global, se requiere un aumento de ocho veces en las inversiones en hidr\u00f3geno hasta 2030, en comparaci\u00f3n con la inversi\u00f3n actual de USD 75 mil millones despu\u00e9s de la FID.<\/p>\n

Para hacer frente a este desaf\u00edo se requiere un esfuerzo conjunto de los responsables de la toma de decisiones en el gobierno y la industria. Los incentivos gubernamentales y los marcos legislativos propicios desempe\u00f1an un papel fundamental en la movilizaci\u00f3n de capital privado y el avance de proyectos maduros en esta d\u00e9cada. En los pr\u00f3ximos dos a\u00f1os, garantizar una mayor claridad y certidumbre regulatoria y el apoyo a los impulsores de la demanda ser\u00e1n fundamentales para abordar los retrasos de los proyectos que se observan hoy junto con el desarrollo de la infraestructura intermedia propicia.<\/p>\n

Juntos, los gobiernos y la industria tienen una oportunidad \u00fanica de aprovechar el innegable progreso logrado en los \u00faltimos cuatro a\u00f1os en el sector del hidr\u00f3geno, generando ganancias ambientales y socioecon\u00f3micas para las econom\u00edas globales junto con beneficios de rentabilidad para los sistemas energ\u00e9ticos.<\/p>\n

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Hydrogen Insights 2024 ofrece la perspectiva m\u00e1s reciente del Hydrogen Council sobre la evoluci\u00f3n de la industria. 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